The AIGA saga

One of my key recommendations in my ISA Book is the diverse range of stockmarket-listed ETFs run by ETFSecurities. Reason being, that these inventive ETFs allow you to invest in the indexes tracking a wide range of commodities not normally accessible to normal investors such as ourselves. That includes such common staples as Corn, Wheat, Sugar, Cotton, Oil, Gold and Silver.

Long-term, as governments pump more money into the economy, the price of commodities in these devalued national currencies can only rise. And before you think it's only me saying this, then perhaps you'll listen to the opinion of uber-investor Jim Rogers, in his book Hot Commodities.

Well, shock, horror, this week, as AIG, the huge US insurance company faced financial problems of its own. Ah, but what's this got to do with the price of wheat, you may ask? Unfortunately, AIG manages the ETF soft commodity (Wheat, Livestock, etc.) ETFs on behalf of ETF Securites. A complex arrangement that is hard to follow, and created much uncertainty as to whether we'd even get our money back if AIG went under.

When they resume trading, we can probably expect mass redemptions of these ETFs. Here's a contrarian opportunity of ever I saw it. Funds at the ready, because with so many eager sellers, it could be worth taking a punt, because the US Government has already shown an intense desire not to let AIG fail, and anyway, there is guarantee that we would even lose our money if they did. With any luck, we'll see these ETFs trading at huge discounts to NAV. I think it's worth taking a risk, especially since the alternative is British pounds (for me), or exposing myself to the vagaries and fluctuations of our ailing economy through stocks.

Time to put a bit back in?

I was surprised to receive a letter recently for a tender offer for up to 40% of my holding in Fidelity Asian Values Investment Trust. While I'm used to this kind of thing happening, I've never seen it happen to Fidelity before, which probably says a lot about the kind of bear market we are experiencing. While I'm not exactly bullish on the future of the developed western world economies, I'm becoming steadily convinced, especially after the Olympics, that, to twist a metaphor slightly, the economic torch for the new century was passed from the USA to China, just as the UK passed it to the USA at the beginning of the 20th century.

Given all this, it's certainly not time to cash in my holdings in this trust at such a depressed price and also a 6.5% discount on the tender under the Net asset value of the trusts' assets. In fact, there may be some uplift in the share price to reflect the departure of less committed shareholders and a lift in the NAV.

Therefore, I'm recommending this trust as a long term BUY, as long as the discount is ten percent or greater. Even better, Fidelity are one of the trust providers that allow you to invest monthly in their trusts free of any brokerage fees, from an amount as low as £50 a month. Highly recommended.