Saturday 20 September 2008

The AIGA saga

One of my key recommendations in my ISA Book is the diverse range of stockmarket-listed ETFs run by ETFSecurities. Reason being, that these inventive ETFs allow you to invest in the indexes tracking a wide range of commodities not normally accessible to normal investors such as ourselves. That includes such common staples as Corn, Wheat, Sugar, Cotton, Oil, Gold and Silver.

Long-term, as governments pump more money into the economy, the price of commodities in these devalued national currencies can only rise. And before you think it's only me saying this, then perhaps you'll listen to the opinion of uber-investor Jim Rogers, in his book Hot Commodities.

Well, shock, horror, this week, as AIG, the huge US insurance company faced financial problems of its own. Ah, but what's this got to do with the price of wheat, you may ask? Unfortunately, AIG manages the ETF soft commodity (Wheat, Livestock, etc.) ETFs on behalf of ETF Securites. A complex arrangement that is hard to follow, and created much uncertainty as to whether we'd even get our money back if AIG went under.

When they resume trading, we can probably expect mass redemptions of these ETFs. Here's a contrarian opportunity of ever I saw it. Funds at the ready, because with so many eager sellers, it could be worth taking a punt, because the US Government has already shown an intense desire not to let AIG fail, and anyway, there is guarantee that we would even lose our money if they did. With any luck, we'll see these ETFs trading at huge discounts to NAV. I think it's worth taking a risk, especially since the alternative is British pounds (for me), or exposing myself to the vagaries and fluctuations of our ailing economy through stocks.

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