Saturday, 22 September 2007

Poor Mervyn King, I've just been back in the UK coinciding with his public TV question time by a load of naive MPs pretending to be real experts on the world and finance and questioning him about why he took the stance he did with Northern Rock.

Personally, I think he was spot on not to get involved with Northern Rock or any other bank having problems, they should be allowed to stand or fall as independent businesses. Do we bail out every corner shop with a "cashflow" problem? Should we?

A lot of the questioning was very naive, and seemed to be based on what the MPs thought up after reading the morning papers and now we hear that the British Government is to increase the banking deposit guarantee limit to £100,000. Aargh! How easy it is to be generous with the taxpayers money, and worse still, the vague statement that this would be funded by a levy on banks means that actually the decent, well-run banks subsidise the risk-taking dangerous ones. Any large guaranteed deposits scheme only encourages banks to take yet more risks. This is a bit like adding a load of extra Vodka to the punchbowl.

At this moment in time, I would not be surprised to see a repeat of 1925-29, with a huge run-up in stock prices as more money gets pumped into the economy by the Ponzi scheme that is fractional reserve banking, followed by an almighty bang, on a scale of the 1974 90% stock market drop.

Don't sell yet, but enjoy the ride and keep your finger poised on the sell button! (oh, and hold some gold!)

Going back to my earlier article though, I still insist Northern Rock has some assets and would watch to see who makes a move.

Monday, 17 September 2007

Site rejig...Scientific Advertising

Okay, so I'm no pro, but I think my book at Do it Yourself ISA is well and truly worth the meagre £4.95 price, considering it can save most investors an awful lot of cash.

So I rejigged the sites to hopefully present more of the positives correctly.

Check it out at :-

www.doityourselfisa.co.uk
www.shareisa.co.uk
www.investmenttrustisa.co.uk
www.unittrustisa.co.uk
www.unitinvestmenttrust.co.uk

Or just go ahead and preview (then hopefully buy...but hey, even if you don't I wish you well with your investing decisions.

You can buy or preview it here.

Sunday, 16 September 2007

Banking Crisis?

Banking crises are more common throughout history than people might think. A lot more common.

The only problem is that history shows that they only tend to happen to one generation once, and they become so cautious about banks afterwards that it never happens again in their lifetime. Then the next generation forgets about it all over again and the cycle repeats.

So I guess in that score, we shouldn't be surprised at what is happening with the Northern Rock right now. We were probably due one.

Historically, somewhere behind it all normally lies a tangled web of profligate lending by the problem banks. None so truer than now.

I am sure that the British Treasury and Bank of England will hold true with their promises to back depositors with the Northern Rock. But then when you're playing with other people's money (I guess such a payout will be made simply by running a few extra pounds off the printing press), you can afford to appear generous.

Not sure what this will do to the British Pound exchange rate longer term though.

And looks like another reason to hold gold and silver as per the ISA recommendations of the superb new book Do-it-Yourself ISAs.

Thursday, 30 August 2007

US SubPrime Worries Hit the StockMarket

Okay, so the market is having some serious jitters right now about these US SubPrime Loans and who is really holding the debt. Banks are being sold (look at Northern Rock - if I had some spare cash I suspect that one could turn out to be a bargain).

To counterbalance it all, the US Fed and the European Central Bank is pumping billions in to shore it all up.

I don't like the sound of this at all, but consider this...it sounds very similar to the 1925 crisis in which banks, mainly the US Fed, pumped billions into the system. The net turnout of that was that for the next 4 years, the stock market powered ahead, culminating in the infamous "permanently high plateau" of 1929.

On this basis, I wouldn't be surprised to see the same thing happen again, so while I'd still recommend diversification into Cash ISAs and Commodity ETFs, don't sell at the prices currently on offer and keep plenty in stocks, just in case.

Of course, it would probably be better to let it all fall apart now, but governments don't tend to let that happen.

Bonds and property funds on the other hand, I would still ignore.

Wednesday, 29 August 2007

The Fleet Street Letter : An Independent Review

Okay, time for a shock confession.

A few years ago, I made the foolish mistake of thinking outside my normal realms of Investment Trusts on huge discounts and low-fee ETFs and started thinking of direct share investments.

Taken in by the "longest published newsletter in the UK...since 1937", I made the big mistake of signing up to the "Fleet Street Letter", or FSL.

While some of the articles on world politics and finances are interesting, the "letter" is basically a 4 page scrap of paper and their direct share tips are the biggest load of rubbish I have ever seen. This for three main reasons :-

1) The tips are recycled from other Agora publications, so by the time they make it to FSL they are no longer fresh or hot.

2) The articles subsequently get recycled into a variety of other publications, so you'll normally get to read them in the end - normally a week or two later in the free email advertising circular "The Daily Reckoning".

3) The letter comes out on a Friday, giving the thousands of subscribers a chance to know what the hot tip of the week is. Consequently, the market makers price up the shares on Monday, knowing that a load of Fleet Street Lemmings will pile in regardless.

Obviously the FSL performance figures are based on prices before this Monday, so there's no way investors can get in at the same price, but hey, it helps the performance figure look good when trying to sell it to new subscribers.

Please let this serve as a warning to anyone thinking of subscribing.

Just check out some of their tips in recent years : Widney, Wagon, Drax, Global Energy Development, Star Energy, Retail Decisions.

I admit to being taken in by the last one. I held the shares anyway, but their article made me think it was time to sell. It wasn't. They advised investors to sell at 140p just before the takeover at 200p!

Back to the world of ITs for me and the occasional direct share of my own choice. (Let the discount be your guide and don't be influenced by others, EVER!)

Wednesday, 15 August 2007

Where you can buy the new "Do it Yourself ISA Guide" book

Silly me. Forget to add where you can buy. Thanks to the power of the internet anyone in the world can get hold of this one as an ebook or hard copy, by visiting here:-

Support independent publishing: buy this book on Lulu.

Go for it! at the moment you could get £50 cashback for spending just £4.95. How many other places can make a statement like that?

Thursday, 26 July 2007

Do it Yourself ISAs

Welcome to the new blog associated with the website www.doityourselfisa.co.uk

This website was set up to promote a greater understanding of ISAs through the "Do it Yourself ISA Guide" book. Feel free to discuss any ISA-related topics on this blog.

I'll be posting whenever I think of anything new or relevant.

But in the meantime, remember to visit www.doityourselfisa.co.uk