As an aside of yesterday's post, I notice that today Barratt and Redrow have fallen another 16 and 9 percent respectively so far this morning. I don't claim anyone reacted on the basis of my post, as really you should be checking the figures and anybody can see where the UK economy is headed.
I just wish I'd been doing a bit of spreadbetting on the prices falling still further. At 76p, how much further can Barratt fall? The answer could be zero? Is there some major bad news in the offing?
Wednesday, 11 June 2008
Tuesday, 10 June 2008
UK Property Price falls
Funny how most of the City fund managers right now have turned "contrarian", and mostly seem to be calling the bottom for housebuilding stocks such as Barratts and Redrow right now. Even stranger still, since you'd expect them to be investing in these stocks, why do the daily prices continue to fall so much? Or are they waiting for others to take the bait first?
In my opinion, these share price drops indicate that reported earnings are going to fall through the floor, possibly coupled with asset value writedowns, as various sites, mainly brownfield have their planned developments deferred. I'm currently staying in a 1-bed flat near Bristol while I work short-term there, and out of my block of 4, 2 are completely empty, and one is up for sale, although at £180,000, reality obviously will take some years to settle in in the second-hand market. How long before the likes of Barratt and Redrow have to do 50% off deals (or buy-one-get-one-free?), simply to shift their current stock of city apartments?
Given the number of years reality may take a long time to set in to the mindset of Joe Public. My guess is 2017 might be the year I'll take the plunge on UK property again. Alternatively, the government might manage to stave off a crash, but if so, don't be surprised if your £180,000 is still worth £180,000, but a loaf of bread costs £50.
If that happens, you'll be wishing you'd invested in Gold and Silver instead!
In my opinion, these share price drops indicate that reported earnings are going to fall through the floor, possibly coupled with asset value writedowns, as various sites, mainly brownfield have their planned developments deferred. I'm currently staying in a 1-bed flat near Bristol while I work short-term there, and out of my block of 4, 2 are completely empty, and one is up for sale, although at £180,000, reality obviously will take some years to settle in in the second-hand market. How long before the likes of Barratt and Redrow have to do 50% off deals (or buy-one-get-one-free?), simply to shift their current stock of city apartments?
Given the number of years reality may take a long time to set in to the mindset of Joe Public. My guess is 2017 might be the year I'll take the plunge on UK property again. Alternatively, the government might manage to stave off a crash, but if so, don't be surprised if your £180,000 is still worth £180,000, but a loaf of bread costs £50.
If that happens, you'll be wishing you'd invested in Gold and Silver instead!
Friday, 9 May 2008
SUCCESSFUL TAX FREE ISA INVESTING
Time for a sneak inside look at what's covered by the new book SUCCESSFUL TAX FREE ISA INVESTING, by ALAN DUNWIDDIE. Here's the contents page, to give you some idea what it covers :-
- Introduction
- About Isas
- Financial Advisors
- Isas and the Tax-free Myth
- Inflation
- Cash Isas
- Investing in Shares
- Choosing a Broker
- Unit Trust Isas
- Investment Trust Isas
- Exchange-Traded Fund Isas
- Commodity Isas
- Gold Isas
- Bond Isas
- Property Isas
- With-Profits Isas
- Isa Mortgages
- The Future Of Isas
- Summary
- Recommended Resources
- Official Inland Revenue Guidance on Isas
Wednesday, 7 May 2008
Selftrade mismanage Freedom4 tender
To Update People on the Pipex/Freedom 4 situation, Halifax did their bit and tendered 85% of my shares, Selftrade on the other hand, mismanaged it and only did 58%, despite me knowing a huge number of their nominee shareholders didn't put their tenders in in time.
I complained about the fact they only tendered 58% when I specifically said tender ALL or as much as possible. The official written reply is :-
"Unfortunately we do not have direct access to the Halifax to substantiate your claim that they tendered 85%..."
Not impressed.
I complained about the fact they only tendered 58% when I specifically said tender ALL or as much as possible. The official written reply is :-
"Unfortunately we do not have direct access to the Halifax to substantiate your claim that they tendered 85%..."
Not impressed.
Should Britain Join the Euro
I used to be strongly in favour of a single European currency, and my partner is from the continent, but after living over there for 3 years, I've completely revised my opinion.
Culturally, Europe is much more socialist and controlling, when compared with the historic British attitude of an island nation based on international trade and financial freedoms, as evidenced by our reputation as one of the best places to conduct international business, and our base as the world's leading financial centre.
Using the old dictum that "he who controls the currency controls the nation", by giving up the national currency, you are also giving up much of the control and handing it to another power, with vested interests of its own.
Fortunately, at this point in time, most Britons realise this and are opposed to the single currency. We all know this, so why even bother going to the expense and hassle of a referendum?
Culturally, Europe is much more socialist and controlling, when compared with the historic British attitude of an island nation based on international trade and financial freedoms, as evidenced by our reputation as one of the best places to conduct international business, and our base as the world's leading financial centre.
Using the old dictum that "he who controls the currency controls the nation", by giving up the national currency, you are also giving up much of the control and handing it to another power, with vested interests of its own.
Fortunately, at this point in time, most Britons realise this and are opposed to the single currency. We all know this, so why even bother going to the expense and hassle of a referendum?
Saturday, 19 April 2008
iWebsharedealing
I set up iwebsharedealing.blogspot.com with the intent of discussing the service (good and bad), provided by iwebsharedealing. I have an account there myself, and now they'd started offering PEPs, I'd been considering switching, but waiting for a good offer.
In the meantime, Google have blocked the blog iwebsharedealing as a potential spam blog. oh well. can only see what they hit upon in the end....
In the meantime, Google have blocked the blog iwebsharedealing as a potential spam blog. oh well. can only see what they hit upon in the end....
Wednesday, 9 April 2008
Freedom 4 Tender Offer Messed Up?
The last ailing moments of probably my most disastrous investment ever, Pipex Communications, aka Freedom4 Communications, has not yet ended.
Recently, the company announced a "return of cash to shareholders" by way of special tender for up to 58% of your holding. Sounds simple enough, although really it was a special dividend, since the value of the remaining shares, holding only the Freedom4 joint Wimax venture with Intel and a 3.6 spectrum licence, has been disregarded by the stock market as worthless.
Anyhow, I'm with Halifax and Selftrade on this one, and Halifax got the notification out at least a week earlier than Selftrade. First issue is that many of Selftrade nominee holders are angry at this short deadline of only 2 days to get their reply in, which meant they missed it and have hence seen an 80% drop in the value of their investment!
I'm not impressed either, even though I did get my instructions in, since in my reply I deliberately stated that I wanted to tender ALL, in the event of other holders not taking up the option, yet they have only taken 58% of my holding offline. Ironically, if I had managed to tender the lot at 10p, it'd have been a decent profit, despite the rubbish performance of this one.I used to be impressed with Selftrade, but their offering is falling way behind iweb, especially for ISAs.
Secondly, we come to the Halifax, where my instructions were in well before the date. As of today, mine and many others have seen their entire holdings reappear in their Halifax account, with a huge red mark indicating the whopping 80% loss.
I don't know if this is just an administrative mistake, but I hate to think they "forgot" to tender my instructions.....I await to see if my money appears. These administrative errors could prove to be expensive.......
Recently, the company announced a "return of cash to shareholders" by way of special tender for up to 58% of your holding. Sounds simple enough, although really it was a special dividend, since the value of the remaining shares, holding only the Freedom4 joint Wimax venture with Intel and a 3.6 spectrum licence, has been disregarded by the stock market as worthless.
Anyhow, I'm with Halifax and Selftrade on this one, and Halifax got the notification out at least a week earlier than Selftrade. First issue is that many of Selftrade nominee holders are angry at this short deadline of only 2 days to get their reply in, which meant they missed it and have hence seen an 80% drop in the value of their investment!
I'm not impressed either, even though I did get my instructions in, since in my reply I deliberately stated that I wanted to tender ALL, in the event of other holders not taking up the option, yet they have only taken 58% of my holding offline. Ironically, if I had managed to tender the lot at 10p, it'd have been a decent profit, despite the rubbish performance of this one.I used to be impressed with Selftrade, but their offering is falling way behind iweb, especially for ISAs.
Secondly, we come to the Halifax, where my instructions were in well before the date. As of today, mine and many others have seen their entire holdings reappear in their Halifax account, with a huge red mark indicating the whopping 80% loss.
I don't know if this is just an administrative mistake, but I hate to think they "forgot" to tender my instructions.....I await to see if my money appears. These administrative errors could prove to be expensive.......
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